counterfactual simulation

Scenario Lab

Stage a scenario to watch it unfold against current controls, then select mitigations to recalculate probability, expected loss and return on control spend.

probability
87%
87% base
expected loss
$214M
$214M base
loss avoided
$0K
vs. do nothing
control spend
$0
0d longest lead
return on control
—
loss avoided / spend
SCN-01 · staged run

FROSTGATE — SecurePay breach of the PCI enclave

stage 0/6

BlackFrost exploits CVE-2026-48217 against an unpatched SecurePay gateway node and pivots to the PCI Card Vault.

cumulative loss at current stage
$0K
  1. 1Initial accessT+00:00no detection$0K

    Unauthenticated deserialization RCE on NS-GW-041 from BlackFrost staging ASN.

  2. 2Credential harvestT+00:47partial$4M

    Cached gateway service-account tokens recovered from process memory.

  3. 3Lateral movementT+02:15partial$19M

    Movement to NS-PAY-CLUSTER-01 across the flat PCI VLAN.

  4. 4CollectionT+06:30covered$88M

    Bulk detokenisation requests staged against the PCI Card Vault.

  5. 5ExfiltrationT+09:10partial$161M

    2.4TB egress over TLS to attacker-controlled object storage.

  6. 6Extortion & disclosureT+38:00covered$214M

    Leak-site listing, SEC 8-K obligation triggered, DFS examination opened.

intervention set

Mitigations

model output

Recalculated position

No mitigation applied. The scenario runs to completion against current controls, with $214M expected loss at 87% probability.